美國牛仔褲的第二把交椅: Kontoor

Kontoor (NYSE:KTB)

分拆與機會

Kontoor從 2019年5月22日 從母公司 VF Corporation 分拆出來, 於分拆時每7 股VF 股票可獲得 1股 KTB, 於分拆時KTB 已透過增發債劵將十億美元當作費用傳回前母公司.

這支股票吸引我的原因在於:

1. 前母公司VF 擁有大量機構投資人, 當分拆完成後由於資金規模限制將被逼放售KTB 股票, 形成不合理賣壓

2. 由於KTB 被分拆的原因在於其品牌只擁有單位數甚至零增長, 母公司為避免成長被拖累將其分拆為獨立子公司, 所以原有股東將應會將其極速放售

3. 根據相關文件顯示, VF Board of director 仍持有大量 KTB 股權, 亦即是說KTB 的股東利益與他們一致

4. 本益比(減去因分拆引致的一次性支出只有約 9至11倍) 與產業平均(約33至36)和 它的對手Levis & Co 的 ~20倍相去甚遠, 甚不符合其作為產業知名品牌的價值

5. 管理層目標將來的 Dividend payout ratio ~ 60%, 以正常年份盈餘計算 殖利率約為 3.4/29(買入價) ~ 11.7%, 雖然 Dividend 很易受到不同因素影響, 我們先把預測的60% 折半後, dividend yield 亦有約6%, 相當不錯.

背景

Kontoor 是總部於美國的國際性牛仔褲(Denim) 品牌, 負責設計,製造和售賣產品, 其擁有Wrangler®, Lee® , Rock & Republic ® brands, VF Outlet™ 等知名品牌.

在國外排名網站位.於第二及第三名, 僅後於 Levis & Co.

KTB主要營收來源以在美國透過大型售賣商如Walmart以及在中層和傳統百貨商店 (Department Store) 賣自家產品, 而在歐洲, 亞洲等則透過專賣, 網上和其他小型商鋪等出售.

營運方式與議價能力

Kontoor主要營運方法:

1. Wholesale (約佔 Kontoor 85% 總營收)

顧名思義, Wholesale主要是靠與分銷商合作, 設計與制造大量品牌產品賣給它們, 再負責廣告等推廣手段.

不過因為Apparel industry消費者的偏好通常很易變化, 又或者某部份的衣服帶有季節性, 外加運送貨物需時, 所以生產商需要對時間掌控非常好, 而且 Wholesaler 一般對下遊的大客戶沒什麼議價能力, 正好 Kontoor 下游為Walmart 等客戶 (約佔32% 營收), 所以相信未來的漲價空間不大, 但長達25年的合作關係卻是收入來源的保證.

成長性

老實說, 即使集團眼光放在中國等品牌還未開發的國家但由於國內市場原本的牛仔褲產品相當激烈, 而且現在的Apparel Products 種類非常多, 例如 運動服,卡其褲,工作服,休閒褲等, 而各服裝在大部份場合功能可以互相重疊,形成競爭非常激烈的狀況, 所以我們對其成長空間並不看好, 但我們對這支股票有興趣的原因並非其成長性, 而是其與價值對比下的超便宜價格.

財務狀況

根據2019年3月的10-Q(季報,Unaudited)現金值得注意的方而有以下幾項:

Note receivable from V.F., $517,940 (In Thousands)

以一家三季營收為8千萬(以正常計,首三個月)竟有高達5億美元 Receivable Notes, 不禁令我覺得好奇,於是翻查一下到底這是什麼:

在Note 14 – related party notes 對此有說明:

Related Party Notes

At March 2019, December 2018 and March 2018, the Company had related party notes receivable of $517.9 million, $517.9 million and $546.7 million, respectively, with VF as the counterparty. These notes are short-term and are recorded in the combined balance sheets in “related party notes receivable”. The weighted-average interest rate for these notes was approximately 3.7%, 3.4% and 2.4% at March 2019, December 2018 and March 2018, respectively.

At March 2019, December 2018 and March 2018, the Company had related party notes payable of $241.9 million, $269.1 million and $269.1 million, respectively, with VF as the counterparty. These notes are short-term and are recorded within the combined balance sheets in “related party notes payable”. The weighted-average interest rate for these notes was approximately 3.7%, 3.4% and 2.3% at March 2019, December 2018 and March 2018, respectively.

The Company recorded net interest income related to these notes of $2.3 million and $1.7 million during the three months ended March 2019 and 2018, respectively, which is reflected in “related party interest income, net” within the combined statements of income.

Due to and From Related Parties

Balances in due to and from related parties are generated by

The sale of trade accounts receivable to VF, as discussed in Note 5 to the combined financial statements

1- Hedging agreements with VF, and

2- Sourcing payable to VF.

Account receivable:

 NOTE 5 — SALE OF ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE

VF has an agreement with a financial institution to sell selected trade accounts receivable on a recurring, non-recourse basis. Under the agreement, up to $377.5 million of VF’s trade accounts receivable may be sold to the financial institution and remain outstanding at any point in time. Prior to the separation from VF, the Company had a separate agreement with VF, pursuant to which the Company’s trade accounts receivable were sold as part of this program. The Company did not retain any interests in the sold accounts receivable but continued to service and collect outstanding accounts receivable on behalf of VF.

總括而言,由於Kontoor與母公司達成協議,將應收帳項賣給母公司再由其賣給某Financial Institute, 所以Kontoor對其母公司約有2.76億美元應收票據(517.9 – 241.9),而這些應收票據違約的機會接近0,即使不計入其產生的利息,亦為每股帶來約4.87元現金

另外,公司還有3億 Account Receivable 於未來一年內收回, 總隱藏的現金約為 5.30+4.87 =$10.16 / share

管理層

上網翻查資料:

CEO Scott H. Baxter  成為 Kontoor執行長前約在VF 服務  12年, 曾擔任不少與服裝品牌有關工作, 相信有足夠經驗帶領 Kontoor:

Baxter 現約擁有 99811 股 Kontoor 股票(市值約280萬美元),相比起持有的VFC (216,683 shares,現值約1730萬美元),略嫌持有太少,似乎公司進步對其的激勵不算太大。

而且其餘Directors & Officers 包括Waldeck Christopher (22,730 shares), Summer Susan Denise (3,471 shares), Welton Rustin (33,710 shares), Waldron Thomas (28,938 shares), Krueger Laurel(14,811 shares) and Shearer Robert (13,724 shares) 持有量亦不大,所以照現況看管理層對於金錢上的誘因不大。

不過值得注意的是,KTB board of directors 中有兩位包括Juliana Chugg 與 Clarence Otis Jr. 透過 PNC Financial Service Group 持有17.23% KTB 普通股,似乎對公司信心頗大。

另外BlackRock 與 Capital World Investor 兩間Investment Firm 合共持有 1,310 萬(23.2%)股,根據Joel Greenblatt 的說法,法人機構持股比例不算高。

危機

1. 營運收益逐漸變差

雖然我們都預計Denim Business 在未來成長性將會非常低甚至負成長,但我們細看近數年的Operating Income 仍未急速下降甚至有些微上升的傾向,但今年由於Kontoor與母公司分拆時需要支付重組費用, 於是整體上將EPS拖累至 0.27.

  1. Restructuring Cost – Note 15

– The Company typically incurs restructuring charges related to cost optimization of business activities. Of the $22.8 million of restructuring charges recognized during the three months ended March 2019.

– The Company did not incur significant incremental costs related to the previously approved initiatives during the three months ended March 2019. Of the $36.6 million total restructuring accrual reported in the combined balance sheet at March 2019, $35.8 million is expected to be paid out within the next 12 months and is classified within “accrued liabilities”. The remaining $0.8 million is expected be paid out beyond the next 12 months and thus is classified within “other liabilities”.

我們認為機會在於當公司開始消化完 重組費用後,分析師覆蓋並認出這支股票的真正潛力後,會重新顯露。

當然我們亦應設立一個撒離計劃:當分析師的研究覆蓋這支股票並同意EPS 回復正常水準後,股價仍然不動甚至下降。

2. 現金流量在大量費用/債務影響下資不抵債

資不抵債的情況在於沒有流動資金,於是我們來看看流動資產的組成:

讓我們用平常測試公司營運狀況的比率 測試Kontoor 的財務穩健度:

比率/公司 Levi’s Kontoor Industry
速動比率 0.85 1.98 0.69
槓桿比率 0.77 0.51 0.37
利息保障倍數 4.72 54.71

由於暫時未有有關利息的數據,所以未能分析利息保障倍數,不過以速動比率和槓桿比率計算,Kontoor 的穩健度都是比產業龍頭和平均更佳

當有最新的報告出爐的時候我們會再為大家分析。

Create your website at WordPress.com
Get started
%d bloggers like this:
search previous next tag category expand menu location phone mail time cart zoom edit close